Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
