🔗 Share this article

Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the team's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When the England international curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?

This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.